Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.081677 2.202178 2.328929 2.472699 2.631873 2.803434 3.003306
2025-04-27 1.932159 2.102535 2.290602 2.515498 2.779706 3.083603 3.464653
2025-05-04 1.836477 2.037909 2.267949 2.553865 2.905245 3.330819 3.898257
2025-05-11 1.736159 1.953918 2.208845 2.534976 2.949940 3.473641 4.208550
2025-05-18 1.656400 1.885835 2.160007 2.519434 2.990725 3.607744 4.515534
2025-05-25 1.586035 1.823178 2.111487 2.497409 3.016872 3.719622 4.799719
2025-06-01 1.524695 1.767278 2.066651 2.474819 3.037306 3.821528 5.077817
2025-06-08 1.480565 1.729993 2.042345 2.476025 3.087986 3.968033 5.441176
2025-06-15 1.450297 1.708280 2.036117 2.499799 3.170328 4.166771 5.917017
2025-06-22 1.399699 1.657715 1.988903 2.463369 3.161419 4.223477 6.156591
2025-06-29 1.351784 1.608581 1.941104 2.422886 3.142655 4.261332 6.365834
2025-07-06 1.302688 1.556024 1.886367 2.369356 3.099984 4.255646 6.491031
2025-07-13 1.282819 1.542095 1.884219 2.392264 3.177576 4.458765 7.065051
2025-07-20 1.269831 1.536727 1.893338 2.431749 3.283724 4.722213 7.823645
2025-07-27 1.256610 1.530305 1.900344 2.467946 3.386773 4.992028 8.668196
2025-08-03 1.227219 1.500562 1.872953 2.450097 3.398526 5.094113 9.144548
2025-08-10 1.200601 1.473730 1.848583 2.435410 3.414112 5.204559 9.671623
2025-08-17 1.173688 1.445621 1.821262 2.414591 3.417331 5.290582 10.158671
2025-08-24 1.148087 1.418577 1.794490 2.393230 3.417873 5.370893 10.654695
2025-08-31 1.130283 1.401962 1.782317 2.394371 3.458171 5.537739 11.466082
2025-09-07 1.119332 1.394666 1.783495 2.416850 3.538401 5.799905 12.693204
2025-09-14 1.093432 1.365299 1.750807 2.382401 3.510897 5.821102 13.105366
2025-09-21 1.067623 1.335471 1.716600 2.344097 3.473887 5.817138 13.429699